Public signal
A rival's basket runs 20 Oct to 26 Dec.
Your own audited data
Your turkey ran out of stock in 12 stores in that window last year.
What OSO tells you
Those 12 stores lost an estimated $310,000 in holiday sales. Fix supply there first.
On Wednesday 14 October at 9 a.m., Wegmans opens its first store in Charlotte.3 It's 110,000 square feet with about 450 staff.45
It's walking into a busy town. In September, Harris Teeter, the Kroger chain based in Matthews, just outside Charlotte, announced about $253 million over three years for its Charlotte-area stores, plus three new ones.678 Walmart lists 214 stores and clubs across North Carolina.9 Target opened its 55th store in the state this spring.1011
Every one of them tells shoppers it has the low price. So we asked a simple question: what do their own numbers say? We read what eight chains published this year about prices, sales and new stores, and lined it all up.
Walmart wins by seven cents. On paper.
Walmart's 2025 Thanksgiving basket fed 10 for $39.93.1 Aldi's fed 10 for $40.2 That's about $4 a person each, with seven cents between them.
Kroger came in under $4.75 a person.12 Target, Amazon and Wegmans all landed at about $5.131415 For scale, the American Farm Bureau's national survey put the classic dinner for 10 at $55.18, about $5.52 a person.16
Two chains sat this one out. Dollar General ran buy-two-get-one recipe bundles, with no basket price.17 Costco published no Thanksgiving basket that we could find.
Walmart and Aldi lead at about $4 a person
2025 Thanksgiving meal, price per person as each chain stated it
Show as a table
| Chain | Per person | What they said | Feeds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart | $3.99 | $39.93 for 10, "less than $4.00 per person" | 10 | 1 |
| Aldi | $4.00 | $40 for 10, "$4 per person" | 10 | 60 |
| Kroger | under $4.75 | "less than $4.75 per person" | 10 | 12 |
| Target | under $5.00 | "less than $20", "less than $5 per person" | 4 | 13 |
| Amazon | $5.00 | "Feed 5 for $25" | 5 | 14 |
| Wegmans | $5.00 | "$5 a serving", Shoppers Club savings | 8 | 15 |
| Dollar General | none | Recipe bundles, no basket price | 17 | |
| Costco | none | No basket published |
Read the fine print. These are not the same basket. Target's feeds four, Amazon's five, Wegmans' eight and the rest 10, and a bigger table spreads the turkey further. Walmart and Amazon sell a fixed one-click basket. Aldi, Kroger, Target and Wegmans publish a shopping list. Wegmans' price needs a Shoppers Club card.15 Kroger says prices vary by area.12 These are each chain's own claims. We didn't buy the baskets.
Most baskets got cheaper in 2025. Walmart and Aldi cut the most.
Walmart says its 2025 basket cost about 25% less than 2024's, which was about $55.1 The 2024 basket served eight, so per person it fell from under $7 to about $4.18 Aldi went from under $47 to $40 for the same 10 people.192 Wegmans went from under $6 a serving to $5.2015
Kroger and Target moved by cents. Target held its turkey at 79 cents a pound for a second year.2122 The Farm Bureau's national average fell too, from $58.08 to $55.18 for 10.2316
Walmart's per-person price fell furthest from 2024 to 2025
Thanksgiving meal, price per person as stated, 2024 to 2025
In the filings, everyone is spending on price.
The Thanksgiving basket is the shop window. The earnings reports show the money behind it. This year several chains got tariff refunds back, and their filings say where that money is going.
In their own words
"Our outlook reflects the continued prioritization of remaining tariff refunds into price investments."Walmart, Q2 FY27 earnings release24
"…reinvested a substantial portion of the refunds in our customer value proposition through targeted promotional activities and lower everyday prices."Dollar General, Q2 2026 10-Q25
"…less partial reinvestment of those refunds in increased member values."Costco, Q4 FY26 earnings release26
"Over the past year, we've reduced prices on more than 10,000 frequently purchased items…"Target, Q2 2026 earnings release27
"…an estimated $86 million in savings through additional price investments on the season's fresh favorites."Aldi, newsroom, September 202628
"…higher transportation costs and greater value delivered for customers."Kroger, on its gross margin, Q2 202629
Same message, different results. Costco's US comparable sales rose 7.2% in its latest quarter, leaving out gas and currency.30 Target's rose 3.8%, Dollar General's 3.5% and Walmart U.S. 2.6%.313233 Kroger's identical sales without fuel rose 0.2%, and it lowered its full-year range to 0.2% to 0.8%, from 1.0% to 2.0%.3435
Amazon doesn't report comparable sales. Its physical stores, which include Whole Foods Market, grew 4%, and it says grocery and everyday essentials are growing "meaningfully faster than the rest of the business."3637
Costco's US comparable sales grew fastest last quarter
US comparable sales growth, latest reported quarter, as each company defines it
Aldi is opening a new store about every two days.
Aldi plans more than 180 new stores in 2026, which works out to about one every two days. It expects nearly 2,800 stores by the end of the year and 3,200 by the end of 2028, with three new distribution centers on the way.38394041
Dollar General plans about 450 new US stores this year and about 4,250 remodels.4243 Target plans more than 30 new stores this year and more than 300 by 2035.4445 Walmart is putting its money into the stores it already has: more than 650 remodels this year, and about 20 new stores between now and early 2027.4647 Costco went from 629 to 647 warehouses in the US and Puerto Rico in a year.4849
Two are reshaping rather than adding. Amazon is closing its Amazon Go and Amazon Fresh stores and plans more than 100 new Whole Foods Market stores over the next few years.5051 Kroger announced about 60 store closures over 18 months in June 2025, and is still spending in strongholds like Charlotte.527
Wegmans plays a different game. It opens just two or three stores a year, by its own account.53 This year, Charlotte is one of them.
Dollar General and Aldi are adding the most stores
New stores each chain says it will open, latest plan
Show as a table
| Chain | New stores | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar General | about 450 | Fiscal 2026, US | 42 |
| Aldi | more than 180 | 2026 | 38 |
| Target | more than 30 | 2026 | 44 |
| Walmart | about 20 | 2026 to early 2027 | 47 |
| Costco | 18 added | Sep 2025 to Sep 2026, US and Puerto Rico | 48, 49 |
| Wegmans | 2 to 3 | A typical year | 53 |
| Amazon | 100+ Whole Foods | "Over the next few years" | 51 |
| Kroger | about 60 closures | 18 months from June 2025 | 52 |
Food costs 2.2% more. Grocery stores sold 0.6% more.
Food at home cost 2.2% more in August than a year earlier.54 Inside that, eggs were down 23% and beef was up 5.9%.5556 The USDA expects food at home to finish 2026 up about 2.4%.57
Sales tell a different story by store type. Census puts July sales at grocery stores 0.6% above a year earlier. Warehouse clubs and supercenters grew 3.8%, about six times as fast.5859 Those two growth rates are our arithmetic on Census's tables, and they're in dollars, before inflation.
+2.2%
Food at home prices
Aug 2026 vs a year earlier · USDA ERS
+5.9%
Beef and veal
Aug 2026 · USDA ERS
−23%
Eggs
Aug 2026 · USDA ERS
+0.6%
Grocery store sales
Jul 2026 · Census, our arithmetic
+3.8%
Clubs and supercenters
Jul 2026 · Census, our arithmetic
Your competitors can read all of this too. The edge is what you join it to.
Everything above is public. On its own, it tells you what the market is saying. Joined to your own numbers, it tells you where it costs you money.
Illustrative example · made-up company and numbers
A regional grocer with 140 stores runs OSO every night across its own books: sales, markdowns, shrink, stock levels and promotions. In November its CFO asks one question: where does a rival's $4 basket actually hurt us?
Public signal
A rival plans a new store next spring.
Your own audited data
4 of your top 20 stores sit within 3 miles of the site.
What OSO tells you
$1.9m of annual sales sits in its trade area. Watch those four.
Public signal
A rival cut prices on 10,000 items.
Your own audited data
Your markdowns on 60 of those items rose 18% since June.
What OSO tells you
You're already matching on 60 items. Here's what it costs you a week.
Public signal
Grocery sales grew 0.6% while clubs grew 3.8%.
Your own audited data
Your bulk-size lines grew 9% this year.
What OSO tells you
Your shoppers are buying bigger. Check your pack-size range.
Each line comes with its evidence and a confidence grade. A named person signs off before anyone acts. We never mix one client's data with another's.
How we did it
- Everything here is public. Every number links to where we found it. We used what each company published itself (press releases and SEC filings), official US statistics (USDA and Census), and one third-party survey (the American Farm Bureau Federation), marked as such.
- We read it the way a person would. No accounts, no logins, no apps. We checked each site's robots rules and terms first, read each page once, and stopped wherever a site turned us away.
- No copies. We didn't use coupon sites or anyone's copy of a chain's ads or prices. We describe, and we don't reproduce ad artwork or item lists.
- Every figure is graded. A means we read it in the company's own release or filing, or an official statistic. B means a cited third-party survey. C means our own arithmetic on a cited source. We used no guesses.
- These are each company's own claims. We didn't buy the baskets or check shelf prices. Aldi and Wegmans are private, so we used only what they publish.
This is what OSO does with public data. Add your own numbers and it gets sharp.
You give us the data. We paint the picture.
Sources
64 sources, each read on the date shown. Grades: A primary source, B third-party survey, C our arithmetic.
- 1Walmart's Annual Thanksgiving Meal Returns — Serving 10 People for Less Than $4.00 Per Person
Walmart's 2024 meal basket was about $55. The 2025 curated meal basket costs $40 ($39.93), which is about 25% less than last year.
- 2ALDI Offers a Full Thanksgiving Meal for $40, Setting the Bar for Other Grocers
For just $40*, shoppers can build a full spread for 10 with the Thanksgiving favorites they love
- 3Wegmans Ballantyne Announces Grand Opening Date
Wegmans first location in Charlotte, North Carolina will open at 9a.m. on Wednesday, October 14.
- 4Wegmans Ballantyne Announces Grand Opening Date
The 110,000 square-foot supermarket is located in Ballantyne at 11550 North Community House Road.
- 5Wegmans Ballantyne Announces Grand Opening Date
The store will employ approximately 450 people and hiring is ongoing.
- 6Harris Teeter Announces $253 Million Investment to Enhance Stores and Expand Footprint Across Charlotte Over the Next Three Years
Harris Teeter, a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Kroger Co. ... Headquartered in Matthews, North Carolina, Harris Teeter employs 36,000 valued associates across more than 250 stores
- 7Harris Teeter Announces $253 Million Investment to Enhance Stores and Expand Footprint Across Charlotte Over the Next Three Years
Harris Teeter announced today it will invest approximately $253 million over the next three years to refresh and modernize select stores across the Charlotte, N.C. area.
- 8Harris Teeter Announces $253 Million Investment to Enhance Stores and Expand Footprint Across Charlotte Over the Next Three Years
Harris Teeter plans to open three new stores in Fort Mill, S.C., Lake Wylie, S.C., and Kannapolis, N.C.
- 9Walmart in North Carolina (location facts data file)
totalRetailUnits: '214'
- 10Target Ramps Up Store Investments to Fuel New Chapter of Growth
It will be Target's 55th store in North Carolina , where the retailer also operates a regional distribution center and has had a presence since 1995.
- 11Continuing Our Growth Story — Marked by Our 2,000th Store in North Carolina
Angela, who has been with Target for 26 years and just opened her first store as a store director
- 12Kroger's Freshgiving Meal Returns
offering customers a complete holiday dinner for ten at an industry-leading price of less than $4.75 per person
- 13Target Offers Under-$20 Thanksgiving Meal and Adds Popular Brands to its Assortment to Help Consumers Host in Style on a Budget
This year's Thanksgiving meal for four is less than $20,1 less than $5 per person.
- 14It's the Season for Savings: Amazon's Black Friday Week and Cyber Monday Deal Events Offer Deep Discounts on Customer-Favorite Brands from November 20 through December 1
customers can shop Amazon's exclusive "Feed 5 for $25" Thanksgiving meal offer—featuring Butterball turkey, homestyle sides, and a classic pre-made pie
- 15Wegmans Serves Up a Thanksgiving Meal for Less than $5 per Person
This Thanksgiving, Wegmans is helping customers sit down to a delicious and affordable holiday meal for $5 a serving*.
- 16AFBF news release: Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Declines (40th annual survey)
a snapshot of the average cost of Thanksgiving staples that make up a classic holiday feast for 10, which is $55.18 or about $5.52 per person.
- 17Celebrate the Season with Affordable Holiday Meal Solutions from Dollar General
DG is offering bundled savings on ingredients for beloved recipes like sweet potato casserole, green bean casserole and pumpkin pie beginning October 19 and running through November 29.
- 18Walmart Sets the Table Early With a Thanksgiving Meal for Less Than $7 per Person
This year's meal features 29 items and serves eight people for less than $7 per person
- 19ALDI Commits to Thanksgiving Prices Lower Than 2019, Feeding 10 People for Less than $47 (PR Newswire, issued by ALDI)
This holiday season, ALDI is offering its lowest-priced Thanksgiving basket in five years – a full meal for 10 people at less than $47.
- 20Wegmans Serves Up a Thanksgiving Meal for Less than $6 per Person
This Thanksgiving, Wegmans is helping customers sit down to a delicious and affordable holiday meal for less than $6 a serving*.
- 21Target Offers Under-$20 Thanksgiving Meal and Adds Popular Brands to its Assortment to Help Consumers Host in Style on a Budget
Target is also offering Good & Gather turkey at the 2024 price of 79 cents per pound — one of the most affordable prices among grocers.
- 22Target's Thanksgiving Meal is Back and $5 Less Than Last Year, Serving Four People for $20
Turkey at 79 cents per pound, 20% less per pound than last year
- 23AFBF news release: Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Declines, Remains Higher than Pre-Pandemic Levels (39th annual survey)
a snapshot of the average cost of this year’s classic holiday feast for 10, which is $58.08 or about $5.80 per person.
- 24Walmart Q2 FY27 earnings release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, filed 2026-08-20)
Our outlook reflects the continued prioritization of remaining tariff refunds into price investments.
- 25Dollar General Corp. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 Jul 2026
reinvested a substantial portion of the refunds in our customer value proposition through targeted promotional activities and lower everyday prices.
- 26Costco Q4 and FY2026 operating results release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, 2026-09-24)
positively impacted by a non-recurring benefit of $0.15 per diluted share from IEEPA tariff refunds received in the quarter, less partial reinvestment of those refunds in increased member values.
- 27Target Q2 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K Ex. 99, 2026-08-19)
Over the past year, we've reduced prices on more than 10,000 frequently purchased items as part of our commitment to delivering outstanding value every day
- 28ALDI Invests in Even Lower Prices this Fall (ALDI US newsroom)
delivering an estimated $86 million in savings through additional price investments on the season's fresh favorites
- 29Kroger Q2 2026 results release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, 2026-09-11)
The decrease in rate was primarily driven by the mix effect of higher fuel sales, higher shrink, higher transportation costs and greater value delivered for customers.
- 30
- 31Target Q2 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K Ex. 99, 2026-08-19)
Comparable sales grew 3.8 percent in the second quarter, reflecting a comparable store sales increase of 2.7 percent and comparable digital sales increase of 8.7 percent.
- 32Dollar General Q2 2026 results release (Form 8-K Ex. 99, 2026-08-27)
Same-store sales increased 3.5% compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2025, reflecting increases of 2.0% in customer traffic and 1.5% in average transaction amount.
- 33Walmart Q2 FY27 earnings release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, filed 2026-08-20)
Walmart U.S. comp sales grew 2.6%, led by growth in transactions
- 34Kroger Q2 2026 results release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, 2026-09-11)
Identical Sales without fuel increased 0.2%
- 35Kroger Q2 2026 results release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, 2026-09-11)
Identical Sales without fuel 1.0% - 2.0% 0.2% - 0.8%
- 36Amazon.com Q2 2026 results release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, 2026-07-30)
Physical stores $5,794M 4%
- 37Amazon.com Q2 2026 results release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, 2026-07-30)
with Grocery and Everyday Essentials growing meaningfully faster than the rest of the business.
- 38ALDI US Doubles Down on Growth in 2026 with Plans to Open 180 New Stores, Announces Plans for Continued Westward Expansion into Colorado
In 2026, the company’s 50th anniversary in the U.S., ALDI will open more than 180 new stores across 31 states
- 39ALDI US Doubles Down on Growth in 2026 with Plans to Open 180 New Stores, Announces Plans for Continued Westward Expansion into Colorado
by the end of 2026, ALDI will operate a total store count of nearly 2,800
- 40ALDI US Doubles Down on Growth in 2026 with Plans to Open 180 New Stores, Announces Plans for Continued Westward Expansion into Colorado
pushing it closer to its goal of 3,200 stores by the end of 2028
- 41ALDI US Doubles Down on Growth in 2026 with Plans to Open 180 New Stores, Announces Plans for Continued Westward Expansion into Colorado
ALDI is increasing operational capacity with plans to open three new distribution centers in the next three years: ... Baldwin, Florida (projected 2027)
- 42Dollar General Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
reiterating its plans to execute approximately 4,730 real estate projects in fiscal 2026, including opening approximately 450 new stores in the United States
- 43Dollar General Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
remodeling approximately 2,000 stores through Project Renovate, remodeling approximately 2,250 stores through Project Elevate, and relocating approximately 20 stores
- 44Target Ramps Up Store Investments to Fuel New Chapter of Growth
Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) today announced plans to open more than 30 new stores in 2026, including its 2,000th location in Fuquay-Varina, N.C.
- 45Target Ramps Up Store Investments to Fuel New Chapter of Growth
This includes plans to add more than 300 new stores by 2035
- 46How We’re Investing in Our Stores to Drive Speed, Convenience and Growth
This year’s investment includes: More than 650 scheduled remodels to Supercenters and Neighborhood Markets
- 47How We’re Investing in Our Stores to Drive Speed, Convenience and Growth
Approximately 20 new store grand openings scheduled for 2026 and early 2027
- 48Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Operating Results
Costco currently operates 914 warehouses, including 629 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 110 in Canada
- 49Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Operating Results
Costco currently operates 939 warehouses, including 647 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 115 in Canada
- 50Amazon doubles down on online grocery delivery and Whole Foods Market expansion to reach more customers
we've made the difficult decision to close our Amazon Go and Amazon Fresh physical stores, converting various locations into Whole Foods Market stores.
- 51Amazon doubles down on online grocery delivery and Whole Foods Market expansion to reach more customers
we are now planning to invest in opening more than 100 new Whole Foods Market stores over the next few years.
- 52Kroger Reports First Quarter 2025 Results and Updates Identical Sales without Fuel Guidance for 2025
Kroger recognized an impairment charge of $100 million related to the planned closing of approximately 60 stores over the next 18 months.
- 53Future Store Locations
Since we open just two or three new stores each year, it would be impossible to oblige every request.
- 54USDA ERS Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings
The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI was unchanged from July 2026 to August 2026 and 2.2 percent higher than in August 2025.
- 55USDA ERS Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings
Egg prices increased 3.5 percent from July 2026 to August 2026 but were 23.0 percent lower in August 2026 than in August 2025.
- 56USDA ERS Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings
Beef and veal prices decreased by 0.6 percent from July 2026 to August 2026 but were 5.9 percent higher in August 2026 than in August 2025.
- 57USDA ERS Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings
Food-at-home prices are forecast to increase 2.4 percent, with a forecast interval of 1.8 to 3.0 percent.
- 58Census Monthly Retail Trade: Estimates of Monthly Retail and Food Services Sales by Kind of Business (mrtssales92-present.xlsx, revised 28 Sep 2026)
Cells: sheet '2026' ADJUSTED 4451 'Jul. 2026(p)' = 76518; sheet '2025' ADJUSTED 4451 'Jul. 2025' = 76069
- 59Census Monthly Retail Trade: Estimates of Monthly Retail and Food Services Sales by Kind of Business (mrtssales92-present.xlsx, revised 28 Sep 2026)
Cells: sheet '2026' ADJUSTED 452311 'Jul. 2026(p)' = 68280; sheet '2025' ADJUSTED 452311 'Jul. 2025' = 65811
- 60ALDI Offers a Full Thanksgiving Meal for $40, Setting the Bar for Other Grocers
For $4 per person —less than a pumpkin spice latte – ALDI shoppers can purchase all the items needed
- 61Target's Thanksgiving Meal is Back and $5 Less Than Last Year, Serving Four People for $20
At just $201, it is $5 less than last year's offering.
- 62Unwrap Millions of Deals During Amazon's Black Friday Week and Cyber Monday Deal Events Running November 21 through December 2
Save on Thanksgiving with Amazon Fresh's selection of turkey, sides, and desserts—feed 6 for less than $5 per person, plus extra savings for Prime members.
- 63Kroger's Freshgiving Prices are Lower than Everyday Low
includes all the staples for less than $4.85 per person—even more affordable than the retailer's turkey day bundle last year.
- 64ALDI Commits to Thanksgiving Prices Lower Than 2019, Feeding 10 People for Less than $47 (PR Newswire, issued by ALDI)
Coming in at less than $4.70 per person, the meal delivers on the traditional, crowd-pleasing favorites that guests crave without the sales, coupons, minimum purchase requirements, loyalty cards and other hoops
OSO Audit is independent. We are not affiliated with or endorsed by any company named here. Brand names are used only to identify them, and each company's claims are its own. Figures are as published on the dates shown and may have changed since.